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ALP primary vote halves in Lytton as Paul Lucas departs

Submitted by ReachTEL on Thu, 08/12/2011 - 15:20
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ReachTEL has conducted a poll of 369 residents in the state electorate of Lytton. This seat is currently held by the ALP with Bligh government Minister Paul Lucas to vacate the seat at the next election. We asked a series of questions including primary and two-party voting intention and asked people to rate the performance of current member and potential Premier Campbell Newman.

The polling was conducted using our fully automated voice broadcast market research capabilities. This gives us the ability to have audited research results back in our customer's hands in literally hours instead of days or even weeks.

 

Key findings:

• The ALP’s primary vote has nearly halved since 2009 dropping from 52.5% to 26.3%

• Katter’s Australian Party polled well with over 12% of the primary vote.

• The LNP is well clear on a two-party preferred basis with a safe 11.7% margin.

• Only a quarter of those polled rated Paul Lucas’ performance as good or very good.

 

Sample = 369

 

Question 1:

If a State election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

 

 

Australian Labor Party

26.3%

Liberal National Party

47.8%

The Greens

9.3%

Katter’s Australian Party

12.6%

Any other party or candidate

4.0%

 

                                                                                                                               

Question 2:

If you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose?

 

 

The Australian Labor Party

38.3%

The Liberal National Party

61.7%

 

 

Question 3:

Which is more important to you – supporting your local member or changing the State Government?

 

ALP Supporters

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

Support the local member

87.9%

5.4%

26.8%

Change the Government

12.1%

94.6%

73.2%

 

 

Question 4:

Please rate the performance of Paul Lucas as Minister in the Bligh Government.

 

ALP Supporters

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

 Very good

62.6%

32.7%

6.0%

1.5%

25.1%

11.9%

Good

29.9%

4.5%

13.2%

Average

22.4%

25.2%

28.6%

Poor

14.9%

9.3%

68.8%

25.7%

46.3%

12.8%

Very Poor

5.6%

43.1%

33.5%

 

 

Question 5:

Please rate the performance of Campbell Newman as Leader of the Liberal-National Party.

 

ALP Supporters

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

 Very good

14.0%

4.7%

85.6%

46.0%

55.9%

31.8%

Good

9.3%

39.6%

24.1%

Average

22.4%

12.4%

17.0%

Poor

63.6%

29.0%

2.0%

2.0%

27.1%

10.5%

Very Poor

34.6%

0.0%

16.6%

 

 

Question 6:

Are you more or less likely to vote for Labor with Paul Lucas retiring at the next election?

 

ALP Supporters

LNP Supporters

Total 

More

 49.5%

7.4%

23.0%

Less

2.8%

28.7%

19.2%

Unchanged

47.7%

63.9%

57.8%

 

This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 369 voters. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The results have been weighted by gender and age to reflect the population according to ABS figures. Please note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd. 

 

You can check out some of the polls we have previously conducted. If you are interested in running a political poll or general market research simply pick up the phone and talk to one of our analyists.