Campbell Newman regains lead over Jones in Ashgrove

In our final poll for Ashgrove, Campbell Newman has turned around months of losses to lead the primary vote by 8.2 percentage points. With over 900 residents in the sample, Mr Newman has a clear lead in the two party preferred race with 54.2% to Kate Jones' 45.8%.

The polling was conducted using our fully automated voice broadcast market research capabilities. This gives us the ability to have audited research results back in our customer's hands in literally hours instead of days or even weeks.

 

The battle for Ashgrove:

Sample = 931

Key findings:

  • For the first time since December 2011, Campbell Newman has increased his primary vote and now leads by a healthy margin of 8.2 percentage points.
  • On a two party preferred basis and with only hours until the election, Campbell Newman leads Kate Jones with a safe margin of 4.2 points.
  • When asked if voters wanted an LNP government with or without Mr Newman as leader, a clear majority wanted him to lead the party.

 

Question 1:

If a State election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

 

 

 

21st March

5th March[1]

9th Feb[2]

11th Jan[3]

8th Dec[4]

7th Nov[5]

5th Oct[6]

6th Sept[7]

Kate Jones – ALP

40.8%

44.4%

41.0%

37.6%

40.7%

39.8%

36.8%

35.0%

Campbell Newman - LNP

49.0%

45.4%

49.2%

50.8%

51.5%

50.2%

53.5%

54.8%

Dr Sandra Bayley – The Greens

7.5%

5.5%

5.7%

6.0%

5.1%

6.2%

6.8%

7.2%

Norman Wicks – The Australian Party

1.8%

2.8%

1.3%

4.4%

1.7%

3.2%

2.6%

2.4%

Ian Nelson - One Nation

0.4%

0.3%

0.7%

0.7%

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Trevor Jones – Ind

0.5%

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Any other candidate

n/a

1.6%

2.1%

0.6%

0.9%

0.5%

0.3%

0.5%

 

 

Two party preferred result based on 2009 election distribution

 

21st March

5th March[1]

Kate Jones – ALP

45.8%

50.7%

Campbell Newman - LNP

54.2%

49.3%

 

Question 2:

If you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose?

 

21st March

5th March[1]

9th Feb[2]

11th Jan[3]

8th Dec[4]

7th Nov[5]

5th Oct[6]

6th Sept[7]

Kate Jones – ALP

48.7%

51.5%

49.0%

45.2%

45.4%

46.0%

43.5%

48.0%

Campbell Newman - LNP

51.3%

48.5%

51.0%

54.8%

54.6%

54.0%

56.5%

52.0%

 

Please note that due to the optional-preferential voting system used in Queensland, this isn't strictly a "two party preferred" question. For more on this topic, please see Antony Green's Election Blog.

 

Question 3:

Assuming the LNP wins government on Saturday, would you prefer an LNP government with or without Campbell Newman as its leader?

 

 

Prefer an LNP government WITH Campbell Newman as its leader 

57.2%

Prefer an LNP government WITHOUT Campbell Newman as leader 

42.8%

 

[1] -  Survey conducted 5th March 2012 with a sample size of 742. Refer to our website for full results

[2] -  Survey conducted 9th February 2012 with a sample size of 616. Refer to our website for full results

[3] -  Survey conducted 11th January 2012 with a sample size of 597. Refer to our website for full results

[4] -  Survey conducted 8th December 2011 with a sample size of 622. Refer to our website for full results

[5] -  Survey conducted 7th November 2011 with a sample size of 620. Refer to our website for full results

[6] -  Survey conducted 5th October 2011 with a sample size of 539. Refer to our website for full results

[7] -  Survey conducted 6th September 2011 with a sample size of 524. Refer to our website for full results

 


This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 931 voters. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The results have been weighted by gender and age to reflect the population according to ABS figures. Please note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd. 

 

You can check out some of the polls we have previously conducted. If you are interested in running a political poll or general market research simply pick up the phone and talk to one of our analysts.