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Massive swing causes issues for the ALP in Ipswich and Bundamba

Submitted by ReachTEL on Fri, 02/12/2011 - 15:20
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ReachTEL has conducted a poll of 371 residents in the state electorate of Bundamba and 384 residents in Ipswich. We asked a series of questions including primary and two-party voting intention and asked people to rate the performance of current member and potential Premier Campbell Newman.

The polling was conducted using our fully automated voice broadcast market research capabilities. This gives us the ability to have audited research results back in our customer's hands in literally hours instead of days or even weeks.

 

Click here for Bundamba results

Click here for Ipswich results

 

Bundamba

Key findings:

• Jo Ann Miller’s primary vote has dropped 25.6% to 35.7% since the 2009 election.

• The ALP and LNP primary vote results are neck-and-neck with the balance of votes spread across the minor parties.

• Katter’s Australian Party polled strongly with over 12% of the primary vote.

• The ALP is slightly ahead in the two-party preferred result with a narrow 1.3% margin.

•  Jo Ann Miller’s performance rating as the local member is indifferent with those polled split across good and poor ratings. 

 

Sample = 371

 

Question 1:

If a State election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

 

 

Jo Ann Miller – ALP

35.7%

Michael Kitzelmann - LNP

36.1%

The Greens

9.1%

Katter’s Australian Party

12.1%

Any other party or candidate

7.0%


Question 2:

If you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose?

 

 

Jo Ann Miller – ALP

51.3%

Michael Kitzelmann – LNP

48.7%

 

Question 3:

Which is more important to you – supporting your local member or changing the State Government?

 

ALP Supporters 

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

Support the local member

73.3%

3.4%

36.4%

Change the Government

26.7%

96.6%

63.6%

 

Question 4:

Please rate the performance of Jo Ann Miller as the local member for Bundamba.

 

ALP Supporters 

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

 Very good

76.7% 

43.0%

17.2% 

5.7%

38.1% 

20.1%

Good

33.7%

11.5%

18.0%

Average

19.8%

35.6%

29.7%

Poor

3.5% 

2.3%

47.1% 

18.4%

32.3% 

11.7%

Very Poor

1.2%

28.7%

20.6%


Question 5:

Please rate the performance of Campbell Newman as Leader of the Liberal-National Party.

 

ALP Supporters 

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

 Very good

22.1%

7.0%

81.6%

43.7%

51.0% 

23.0%

Good

15.1%

37.9%

28.0%

Average

17.4%

12.6%

17.0%

Poor

60.5% 

25.6%

5.7%

4.6%

32.0% 

12.1%

Very Poor

34.9%

1.1%

19.9%

 

 

Ipswich

Key findings:

• Rachel Nolan’s primary vote has almost halved since 2009 – down 29% to 31.2%.

• Katter’s Australian Party polled strongly with over 10% of the primary vote.

• The LNP is ahead on a two-party preferred basis with a very safe margin of 9.4%.

• Less than a quarter of the electorate think Rachel Nolan has done a good or very good job as a Minister in the Bligh Government.

 

Sample = 384


Question 1:

If a State election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

 

 

Rachel Nolan – ALP

31.2%

Ian Berry - LNP

45.5%

The Greens

8.4%

Katter’s Australian Party

10.4%

Any other party or candidate

4.4%

                                                                                                                               

Question 2:

If you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose?

 

 

Rachel Nolan – ALP

40.6%

Ian Berry – LNP

59.4%

 

Question 3:

Which is more important to you – supporting your local member or changing the State Government?

 

ALP Supporters 

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

Support the local member

83.9%

5.7%

34.3%

Change the Government

16.1%

94.3%

65.7%

 

Question 4:

Please rate the performance of Rachel Nolan as Minister in the Bligh Government.

 

ALP Supporters 

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

 Very good

59.1% 

16.1%

2.9% 

0.0%

23.1% 

5.0%

Good

43.0%

2.9%

18.1%

Average

32.3%

25.1%

31.1%

Poor

8.6% 

5.4%

72.0% 

29.1%

45.8% 

16.2%

Very Poor

3.2%

42.9%

29.6%

 

Question 5:

Please rate the performance of Campbell Newman as Leader of the Liberal-National Party.

 

ALP Supporters 

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

 Very good

15.0%

3.2%

78.8%

41.7%

48.6% 

22.4%

Good

11.8%

37.1%

26.2%

Average

26.9%

16.6%

19.0%

Poor

58.1% 

26.9%

4.6%

2.9%

32.4% 

14.0%

Very Poor

31.2%

1.7%

18.4%

 

 

This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 371 voters in Bundamba and 384 voters in Ipswich. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The results have been weighted by gender and age to reflect the population according to ABS figures. Please note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd. 

 

You can check out some of the polls we have previously conducted. If you are interested in running a political poll or general market research simply pick up the phone and talk to one of our analyists.