Kate Jones continues positive trend in Ashgrove

For the second consecutive month Kate Jones has increased her primary vote in Ashgrove. This time she has picked up another 3.4 percentage points and has increased her primary vote 6.8 percentage points since our January poll. Jones' lift has come almost exclusively from Campbell Newman who has dropped 5.4 percentage points in the same two month period. The sample included 742 voters in the electorate and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

The polling was conducted using our fully automated voice broadcast market research capabilities. This gives us the ability to have audited research results back in our customer's hands in literally hours instead of days or even weeks.

 

The battle for Ashgrove:

 Key findings:

  • Momentum is firmly with Kate Jones with a 3.4 percentage point increase since February and 6.8 percentage points since January.
  • Kate Jones leads Campbell Newman 50.7% to 49.3% based on 2009 2PP preference distribution.
  • When asked what issue was most important, cost of living pressures was clearly the biggest issue for Ashgrove residents.

 

Question 1:

If a State election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

 

 

 

5th March

9th Feb[1]

11th Jan[2]

8th Dec[3]

7th Nov[4]

5th Oct[5]

6th Sept[6]

Kate Jones – ALP

44.4%

41.0%

37.6%

40.7%

39.8%

36.8%

35.0%

Campbell Newman - LNP

45.4%

49.2%

50.8%

51.5%

50.2%

53.5%

54.8%

Dr Sandra Bayley – The Greens

5.5%

5.7%

6.0%

5.1%

6.2%

6.8%

7.2%

Norman Wicks – Katter’s Australian Party

2.8%

1.3%

4.4%

1.7%

3.2%

2.6%

2.4%

Ian Nelson - One Nation

0.3%

0.7%

0.7%

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Any other candidate

1.6%

2.1%

0.6%

0.9%

0.5%

0.3%

0.5%

 

Two party preferred result based on 2009 election preference distribution

 

 

Kate Jones – ALP

50.7%

Campbell Newman - LNP

49.3%

 

Question 2:

If you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose?

 

 5th March

9th Feb[1]

11th Jan[2]

8th Dec[3]

7th Nov[4]

5th Oct[5]

6th Sept[6]

Kate Jones – ALP

51.5%

49.0%

45.2%

45.4%

46.0%

43.5%

48.0%

Campbell Newman - LNP

48.5%

51.0%

54.8%

54.6%

54.0%

56.5%

52.0%

Please note that due to the optional-preferential voting system used in Queensland, this isn't strictly a "two party preferred" question. For more on this topic, please see Antony Green's Election Blog.

 

 Question 3:

Which of the following issues is most important to you and your family?

 

 

Cost of living

45.0%

Education

15.2%

Health

19.9%

Local traffic issues

11.7%

Crime and anti-social behaviour

8.1%

 

[1] -  Survey conducted 9th February 2012 with a sample size of 616. Refer to our website for full results

[2] -  Survey conducted 11th January 2012 with a sample size of 597. Refer to our website for full results

[3] -  Survey conducted 8th December 2011 with a sample size of 622. Refer to our website for full results

[4] -  Survey conducted 7th November 2011 with a sample size of 620. Refer to our website for full results

[5] -  Survey conducted 5th October 2011 with a sample size of 539. Refer to our website for full results

[6] -  Survey conducted 6th September 2011 with a sample size of 524. Refer to our website for full results


This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 742 voters. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The results have been weighted by gender and age to reflect the population according to ABS figures. Please note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd. 

 

You can check out some of the polls we have previously conducted. If you are interested in running a political poll or general market research simply pick up the phone and talk to one of our analysts.