Preferences the key for The Greens in the Melbourne by-election

ReachTEL conducted a three-question survey of 403 residents in the Victorian state seat of Melbourne on the night of 16th July 2012.

 


By-election not the shoo-in minor party has predicted - John Ferguson - The Australian


Key findings:

  •  The Greens are marginally ahead in the primary vote but preferences will play a major role in securing the result.
  •  Over half of those that indicated they voted Liberal in 2010 said they would now vote for an independent or minor party.
  • The ALP vote is unaffected by the Gillard government’s performance with a similar number of people more likely to vote for them as those who are less likely.
  • Nearly half of those polled don’t support the East West Link Road project.

 

Sample = 403


Question 1:

If a state election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided, to which to you have even a slight leaning?

 

 

Jennifer Kanis - ALP

36.5%

Cathy Oke - The Greens

38.1%

Fiona Patten - Sex Party

6.1%

Ashley Fenn - Family First

3.8%

Independent - Stephen Mayne

4.3%

Any other candidate or party

11.2%

 

Those that indicated they voted Liberal in the 2010 State election, would now vote for:

 

 

Jennifer Kanis - ALP

14.8%

Cathy Oke - The Greens

9.9%

Fiona Patten - Sex Party

7.4%

Ashley Fenn - Family First

17.3%

Independent - Stephen Mayne

24.7%

Any other candidate or party

25.9%

 

Question 2:

Has the performance of the Gillard government made you more or less likely to vote for the Labor party?

 

 

More likely

35.8%

Less likely

34.3%

Unchanged

29.9%

 

Question 3:

Do you support the East West Link Road Tunnel project?

 

 

Support

28.3%

Don’t support

49.8%

Undecided

21.9%

 

This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 403 voters. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The results have been weighted by gender to reflect the population according to ABS figures. Please note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd. 


You can check out some of the polls we have previously conducted. If you are interested in running a political poll or general market research simply pick up the phone and talk to one of our analysts.