Campbell Newman bucks trend in Ashgrove

ReachTEL has conducted a poll of 622 residents in the Ashgrove electorate. We asked a series of questions including primary and two-party voting intention, support for Mr Newman as Premier and support for the local member.

This is the fifth poll in the series with previous polls being conducted on the 7th November5th October6th September and 31st May.

The polling was conducted using our fully automated voice broadcast market research capabilities. This gives us the ability to have audited research results back in our customer's hands in literally hours instead of days or even weeks.

 

The battle for Ashgrove:

 

Key findings:

Campbell Newman has broken the downward trend with a 1.3 percentage point primary vote increase since November 2011.

Campbell Newman is ahead on primary vote with 51.5%.

Slight consolidation of primary votes from minor parties to major parties.

 

Sample size = 622

 

Question 1:

If a State election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

 

 

Change since 7-Nov[1]

Change since 5-Oct[2]

Change since 6-Sept[3]

Kate Jones – ALP

40.7%

+0.9%

+3.9%

+5.7%

Campbell Newman - LNP

51.5%

+1.3%

-2.0%

-3.3%

Dr Sandra Bayley – The Greens

5.1%

-1.1%

-1.7%

-2.1%

Katter’s Australian Party

1.7%

-1.5%

-0.9%

-0.7%

Any other candidate

0.9%

+0.4%

+0.6%

+0.4%

 

[1] -  Survey conducted 7th November 2011 with a sample size of 620.

[2] -  Survey conducted 5th October 2011 with a sample size of 539.

[3] -  Survey conducted 6th September 2011 with a sample size of 524.

 

 

Question 2:

If you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose? 

 

 

Change since 7-Nov[1]

Kate Jones – ALP

45.4%

-0.6%

Campbell Newman - LNP

54.6%

+0.6%

 

 

Question 3:

Campbell Newman is the proposed leader of the LNP and potential Premier. Has this made you more or less inclined to vote for Campbell Newman?

 

ALP Supporters

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

Change since 7-Nov[1]

More inclined

7.1%

78.3%

43.6%

+3.1%

Unchanged

17.5%

18.9%

20.9%

-0.3%

Less inclined

75.4%

2.8%

35.5%

-2.9%

 

 

Question 4:

Which is more important to you – supporting your local member or changing the State Government?

 

ALP Supporters 

LNP Supporters

TOTAL

Support the local member

94.8%

6.5%

44.8%

Change the Government

5.2%

93.5%

55.2%

 

This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 622 voters. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The results have been weighted by gender to reflect the population according to ABS figures. Please note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd. 


You can check out some of the polls we have previously conducted. If you are interested in running a political poll or general market research simply pick up the phone and talk to one of our analyists.