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We are very proud to present an analysis on the accuracy of pollsters in the 2015 New South Wales state election.

 

7 News

An average error of less than a single percentage point.

Our final state poll was the equal second most accurate poll with an average error on the primary vote of just 0.70%. This was narrowly behind Galaxy on 0.38%, equal with Newspoll and significantly ahead of Essential Media, Roy Morgan and Ipsos.

This result follows our "most accurate" performance in the Queensland election held in January. You can read the review for the Queensland election here.

 

Progressive count as at 1:00pm, Monday 13th April 2015

 

Election

 

Roy Morgan

 

Galaxy

 

Newspoll

 

ReachTEL

 

Essential

 

Ipsos

Party

Primary

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

Liberals

35.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

35

-0.1

 

36.4

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nationals

10.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

-1.6

 

9.1

-1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coalition

45.7

 

49

3.3

 

45

-0.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

44

-1.7

 

47

1.3

ALP

34.1

 

29

-5.1

 

34

-0.1

 

34

-0.1

 

33.8

-0.3

 

36

1.9

 

32

-2.1

Green

10.3

 

12.5

2.2

 

11

0.7

 

11

0.7

 

10.5

0.2

 

9

-1.3

 

13

2.7

CDP

3.2

 

3

-0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Land Tax

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other

4.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NLT + Other

6.8

 

6.5

-0.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CDP + NLT + Other

10.0

 

 

 

 

10

0.0

 

11

1.0

 

10.2

0.2

 

11

1.0

 

9

-1.0

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average error on Primary Vote

2.22

 

0.38

 

0.70

 

0.70

 

1.48

 

1.78

Sources: Primary results, Roy Morgan, Galaxy, Newspoll, ReachTEL, Essential, Ipsos.

Errors and omissions excepted.