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We are very proud to present an analysis on the accuracy of pollsters in the 2015 Queensland state election. So where do you go for the most accurate political polling?

 

7 News


Our final poll for 7News Brisbane was the most accurate of all polls with an average error on the primary vote of just 0.7%. This was narrowly ahead of Galaxy on 0.8% and significantly ahead of Essential Media, Roy Morgan and Newspoll.

Although most pollsters didn't poll in the area, our Ashgrove poll results on the Wednesday prior to election were instrumental identifying that Campbell Newman would lose his seat in a landslide. With many political commentators deriding the results as "unlikely", the ReachTEL result was confirmed on Saturday.

Former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie

 

Progressive count of the Queensland state results as at 10:00am, Thursday 5th February 2015.

 

Election

 

Roy Morgan

 

Galaxy

 

Newspoll

 

7News

ReachTEL

 

Essential

Party

Primary

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

 

Primary

err

LNP

41.54

 

39.5

-2.0

 

41

-0.5

 

41

-0.5

 

41.5

0.0

 

39

-2.5

ALP

37.78

 

37

-0.8

 

37

-0.8

 

37

-0.8

 

37.2

-0.6

 

38

0.2

Green

8.14

 

10

1.9

 

8

-0.1

 

6

-2.1

 

7.5

-0.6

 

7

-1.1

Palmer

4.93

 

4

-0.9

 

4

-0.9

 

 

 

 

4.4

-0.5

 

5

0.1

Katter

1.83

 

3.5

1.7

 

2

0.2

 

2

0.2

 

 

 

 

2

0.2

Ind/oth

5.77

 

6

0.2

 

8

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

3.2

Ind/oth + Palmer

10.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

3.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind/oth + Katter

7.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.3

1.7

 

 

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average error on Primary Vote

1.25

 

0.80

 

1.39

 

0.70

 

1.23

 

 

Sources:  Primary results, Roy MorganGalaxyNewspollReachTELEssential

Errors and omissions excepted.