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ReachTEL conducted a survey of 1,129 residents in the Western Australian federal electorate of Canning. The survey was conducted the night of 14th September 2015.

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Question 1:

At the upcoming by election on September 19th, which of the following will receive your first preference vote?

 

Total

Liberal – Andrew Hastie

45.3% 

Labor – Matt Keogh

36.4% 

The Greens – Vanessa Rauland

7.4% 

Palmer United Party – Vimal Kumar Sharma

2.6% 

Other / Independent

5.3% 

Undecided

3.0% 

 

Two party preferred result based on respondent allocated preference from Question 1b with Undecided voters distributed according to Question 1a.

 

 

Liberal – Andrew Hastie 

52% 

Labor – Matt Keogh

48%

 

Question 1a:

 Being undecided to which of the following do you have even a slight leaning?

 

 

Liberal – Andrew Hastie

24.8% 

 

Labor – Matt Keogh

58.0% 

 

The Greens – Vanessa Rauland

4.9% 

 

Palmer United Party – Vimal Kumar Sharma

2.2% 

 

Other / Independent

10.1% 

 

Respondents included are only those who answered ‘Undecided’ to Question 1.

 

Question 1b:

If a federal election were held today, which of the follow parties would you preference higher?

 

Total

Liberal – Andrew Hastie

36.6% 

Labor – Matt Keogh

63.4% 

Note: Only those respondents that didn’t choose ‘Liberal’ or ‘Labor’ in Question 1 were included in Question 2.

 

Question 2:

Now, please consider a different scenario where Malcolm Turnbull is the leader of the Coalition.

At the upcoming by election on September 19th, which of the following will receive your first preference vote?

 

Total

Liberal – Andrew Hastie

47.6% 

Labor – Matt Keogh

32.9% 

The Greens – Vanessa Rauland

6.4% 

Palmer United Party – Vimal Kumar Sharma

3.3% 

Other / Independent

7.1% 

Undecided

2.6% 

 

Two party preferred result based on respondent allocated preference from Question 2b with Undecided voters distributed according to Question 2a.

 

 

Liberal – Andrew Hastie 

57% 

Labor – Matt Keogh

43% 

 

Question 2a:

 Being undecided to which of the following do you have even a slight leaning?

 

 

Liberal – Andrew Hastie

40.4% 

 

Labor – Matt Keogh

17.1% 

 

The Greens – Vanessa Rauland

2.0% 

 

Palmer United Party – Vimal Kumar Sharma

0.0% 

 

Other / Independent

40.5% 

 

Respondents included are only those who answered ‘Undecided’ to Question 1.

 

Question 2b:

If a federal election were held today, which of the follow parties would you preference higher?

 

Total

Liberal – Andrew Hastie

49.3% 

Labor – Matt Keogh

50.7% 

Note: Only those respondents that didn’t choose ‘Liberal’ or ‘Labor’ in Question 1 were included in Question 2.

 

Question 3:

Who of the following do you think would make the better leader of the Coalition? 

 

Total

Female

Male

18 - 34

35 - 50

51 - 65

65+

Tony Abbott

29.0% 

30.5% 

27.5% 

35.3% 

31.7% 

20.2% 

27.6% 

Malcolm Turnbull

43.9% 

41.4% 

46.5% 

33.7% 

41.0% 

53.3% 

50.5% 

Julie Bishop

6.0% 

5.1% 

7.0% 

5.8% 

6.3% 

5.2% 

7.0% 

Scott Morrison

21.0%

23.0%

19.0%

25.3%

21.0%

21.3%

15.0%

 

 

Total

Liberal

Labor

Greens

Und

Tony Abbott

29.0% 

48.8% 

7.8% 

6.0% 

15.2% 

Malcolm Turnbull

43.9% 

28.2% 

63.4% 

70.2% 

39.4% 

Julie Bishop

6.0%

5.3%

5.6%

6.0%

3.0%

Scott Morrison

21.0%

17.6%

23.2%

17.9%

42.4%

 

Question 4:

Thinking about the next Federal election, who do you think would have a better chance of winning for the Coalition? 

 

Total

Female

Male

18 - 34

35 - 50

51 - 65

65+

Tony Abbott

32.8%

33.7%

31.8%

44.1%

33.3%

21.6%

30.8%

Malcolm Turnbull

67.2%

66.3%

68.2%

55.9%

66.7%

78.4%

69.2%

 

 

Total

Liberal

Labor

Greens

Und

Tony Abbott

32.8%

50.1%

11.7%

21.4%

18.2%

Malcolm Turnbull

67.2%

49.9%

88.3%

78.6%

81.8%

 This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 1,129 voters. The data has been weighted to reflect the population age and gender distribution as provided by the ABS. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd.