ReachTEL conducted a survey of 3,502 residents across Australia during the evening of 5th February 2015.
Question 1:
If a Federal election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?
|
|
26th June |
21st July |
21st Aug |
18th Sep |
23rd Oct |
20th Nov |
27th Jan |
5th Feb |
|
2013 Election |
|
Liberal |
34.9% |
35.7% |
36.8% |
37.0% |
36.1% |
36.1% |
35.5% |
34.4% |
|
41.3% |
|
The Nationals |
4.7% |
4.8% |
4.4% |
4.6% |
4.0% |
4.1% |
4.2% |
4.0% |
|
4.3% |
|
Labor |
38.7% |
37.1% |
37.3% |
37.4% |
37.5% |
38.7% |
40.2% |
41.4% |
|
33.4% |
|
The Greens |
10.3% |
10.3% |
9.8% |
10.5% |
11.5% |
11.1% |
11.3% |
11.2% |
|
8.6% |
|
Palmer United Party |
6.8% |
8.2% |
6.7% |
5.3% |
5.1% |
3.1% |
2.9% |
2.7% |
|
5.5% |
|
Other |
4.7% |
3.9% |
4.9% |
5.2% |
5.8% |
6.8% |
5.9% |
6.2% |
|
6.9% |
|
|
5th Feb |
Female |
Male |
18-34 |
35-50 |
51-65 |
65+ |
|
Liberal |
34.4% |
33.0% |
35.9% |
26.2% |
35.5% |
36.1% |
44.9% |
|
The Nationals |
4.0% |
4.5% |
3.5% |
3.2% |
3.2% |
4.4% |
6.6% |
|
Labor |
41.4% |
42.4% |
40.4% |
41.0% |
40.5% |
45.2% |
38.3% |
|
The Greens |
11.2% |
12.7% |
9.6% |
17.4% |
11.0% |
8.1% |
4.7% |
|
Palmer United Party |
2.7% |
2.1% |
3.5% |
4.2% |
3.2% |
1.5% |
1.2% |
|
Other |
6.2% |
5.4% |
7.0% |
7.9% |
6.6% |
4.8% |
4.2% |
Two party preferred result based on 2013 election distribution
|
|
26th June |
21st July |
21st Aug |
18th Sep |
23rd Oct |
20th Nov |
27th Jan |
5th Feb |
|
Liberal / National |
47% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
46% |
45% |
|
Labor |
53% |
52% |
51% |
51% |
52% |
53% |
54% |
55% |
Question 2:
Now, please consider a difference scenario where Malcolm Turnbull is Prime Minister instead of Tony Abbott.
If a Federal election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?
|
|
Q1 w/Abbott |
Q2 w/Turnbull |
Female |
Male |
18-34 |
35-50 |
51-65 |
65+ |
|
Liberal |
34.4% |
44.0% |
41.4% |
46.7% |
36.9% |
43.8% |
45.8% |
54.3% |
|
The Nationals |
4.0% |
4.4% |
5.2% |
3.5% |
3.6% |
4.2% |
5.0% |
5.4% |
|
Labor |
41.4% |
34.1% |
36.5% |
31.5% |
34.3% |
34.3% |
36.1% |
30.6% |
|
The Greens |
11.2% |
9.3% |
10.4% |
8.1% |
14.8% |
8.8% |
6.6% |
3.9% |
|
Palmer United Party |
2.7% |
2.6% |
1.9% |
3.3% |
3.6% |
3.1% |
1.3% |
1.7% |
|
Other |
6.2% |
5.7% |
4.6% |
6.9% |
6.8% |
5.8% |
5.1% |
4.1% |
Two party preferred result based on 2013 election distribution
|
|
5th Feb |
|
Liberal / National |
54% |
|
Labor |
46% |
Question 3:
Please consider one more scenario where Julie Bishop is Prime Minister instead of Tony Abbott.
If a Federal election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?
|
|
Q1 w/Abbott |
Q2 w/Turnbull |
Q3 w/Bishop |
Female |
Male |
18-34 |
35-50 |
51-65 |
65+ |
|
Liberal |
34.4% |
44.0% |
41.4% |
40.8% |
42.1% |
33.7% |
40.7% |
44.6% |
52.3% |
|
The Nationals |
4.0% |
4.4% |
4.1% |
5.1% |
3.1% |
3.7% |
4.4% |
3.9% |
4.4% |
|
Labor |
41.4% |
34.1% |
36.3% |
37.1% |
35.4% |
35.8% |
36.8% |
38.7% |
33.1% |
|
The Greens |
11.2% |
9.3% |
10.0% |
10.7% |
9.1% |
16.0% |
9.1% |
7.0% |
4.6% |
|
Palmer United Party |
2.7% |
2.6% |
3.1% |
1.8% |
4.4% |
4.9% |
2.9% |
2.0% |
1.7% |
|
Other |
6.2% |
5.7% |
5.2% |
4.6% |
5.8% |
5.8% |
6.1% |
3.9% |
3.9% |
Two party preferred result based on 2013 election distribution
|
|
5th Feb |
|
Liberal / National |
51% |
|
Labor |
49% |
Question 4:
Please rate the performance of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister?
|
|
18th Sep |
23rd Oct |
20th Nov |
27th Jan |
5th Feb |
|
|
L/NP |
Labor |
Greens |
|
Very good |
19.6% |
18.5% |
18.5% |
9.8% |
10.7% |
21.1% |
|
25.7% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
|
Good |
12.5% |
13.0% |
12.6% |
11.8% |
10.4% |
|
23.9% |
1.0% |
3.6% |
|
|
Satisfactory |
20.3% |
17.6% |
16.8% |
16.7% |
16.2% |
16.2% |
|
29.0% |
8.1% |
8.9% |
|
Poor |
17.4% |
17.8% |
16.0% |
21.1% |
16.5% |
62.7% |
|
12.7% |
20.6% |
14.0% |
|
Very poor |
30.1% |
33.2% |
36.1% |
40.5% |
46.2% |
|
8.7% |
69.6% |
73.3% |
Question 5:
Please rate the performance of Bill Shorten as Leader of the Opposition?
|
|
18th Sep |
23rd Oct |
20th Nov |
27th Jan |
5th Feb |
|
|
L/NP |
Labor |
Greens |
|
Very good |
6.3% |
8.5% |
8.1% |
9.3% |
9.0% |
25.1% |
|
1.9% |
18.3% |
1.8% |
|
Good |
14.9% |
13.5% |
13.2% |
17.8% |
16.1% |
|
3.6% |
27.0% |
19.9% |
|
|
Satisfactory |
39.5% |
36.7% |
41.0% |
34.6% |
35.6% |
35.6% |
|
24.6% |
42.6% |
53.5% |
|
Poor |
22.0% |
23.8% |
20.5% |
20.3% |
20.0% |
39.3% |
|
29.3% |
10.8% |
20.5% |
|
Very poor |
17.3% |
17.5% |
17.2% |
18.0% |
19.3% |
|
40.7% |
1.3% |
4.3% |
Question 6:
If you were forced to choose between the following two people to lead the Liberal / National Coalition, who would you choose?
|
|
Total |
L/NP |
Labor |
Greens |
PUP |
Other |
|
Malcolm Turnbull |
56.5% |
45.6% |
66.7% |
59.3% |
46.9% |
54.6% |
|
Julie Bishop |
43.5% |
54.4% |
33.3% |
40.7% |
53.1% |
45.4% |
|
|
Total |
Female |
Male |
18-34 |
35-50 |
51-65 |
65+ |
|
Malcolm Turnbull |
56.5% |
50.5% |
62.7% |
51.5% |
54.4% |
64.5% |
58.0% |
|
Julie Bishop |
43.5% |
49.5% |
37.3% |
48.5% |
45.6% |
35.5% |
42.0% |
Question 7:
Which statement do you agree with most?
|
|
Total |
L/NP |
Labor |
Greens |
PUP |
Other |
|
A party should be allowed to change their leader whenever they like |
50.3% |
36.5% |
60.2% |
59.8% |
46.9% |
54.2% |
|
A party should only be able to change their leader at an election |
49.7% |
63.5% |
39.8% |
40.2% |
53.1% |
45.8% |
|
|
Total |
Female |
Male |
18-34 |
35-50 |
51-65 |
65+ |
|
A party should be allowed to change their leader whenever they like |
50.3% |
47.7% |
53.1% |
45.2% |
48.2% |
56.8% |
54.2% |
|
A party should only be able to change their leader at an election |
49.7% |
52.3% |
46.9% |
54.8% |
51.8% |
43.2% |
45.8% |
This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 3,502 voters. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The results have been weighted by gender and age to reflect the population according to ABS figures. Please note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd.
