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Last night we updated our Ashgrove poll with a sample of 597 residents in the Ashgrove electorate. This is our fifth consecutive month of polling the electorate and the trend indicates that it's still very close.

The polling was conducted using our fully automated voice broadcast market research capabilities. This gives us the ability to have audited research results back in our customer's hands in literally hours instead of days or even weeks.

 

The battle for Ashgrove:

 Key findings:

  • Primary vote numbers for the major parties have remained relatively steady since November.
  • Campbell Newman slightly increases his forced choice, two-party preferred result by 0.2 percentage points to have a 4.8% margin over Kate Jones.

 

Question 1:

If a State election were to be held today, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

 

 

 11th Jan

8th Dec[1]

7th Nov[2]

5th Oct[3]

6th Sept[4]

Kate Jones - ALP

37.6%

40.7%

39.8%

36.8%

35.0%

Campbell Newman - LNP

50.8%

51.5%

50.2%

53.5%

54.8%

Dr Sandra Bayley - The Greens

6.0%

5.1%

6.2%

6.8%

7.2%

Ian Nelson - One Nation

0.7%

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Katter's Australian Party

4.4%

1.7%

3.2%

2.6%

2.4%

Any other candidate

0.6%

0.9%

0.5%

0.3%

0.5%

 Note: The One Nation option was first provided in the 11th January poll.                                                                              

 

Question 2:

If you were forced to make a choice between the following two candidates who would you choose?

 

 11th Jan

8th Dec[1]

7th Nov[2]

5th Oct[3]

6th Sept[4]

Kate Jones - ALP

45.2%

45.4%

46.0%

43.5%

48.0%

Campbell Newman - LNP

54.8%

54.6%

54.0%

56.5%

52.0%

 

 

Question 3:

Campbell Newman is the proposed leader of the LNP and potential Premier. Has this made you more or less inclined to vote for Campbell Newman?

 

 11th Jan

8th Dec[1]

7th Nov[2]

5th Oct[3]

More inclined

43.2%

43.6%

40.5%

44.7%

Unchanged

18.5%

20.9%

21.2%

21.7%

Less inclined

38.3%

35.5%

38.4%

33.6%

 

 

Question 4:

Which is more important to you - supporting your local member or changing the State Government?

 

 11th Jan

8th Dec[1]

7th Nov[2]

Supporting the local member

45.2%

44.8%

42.6%

Change the Government

54.8%

55.2%

57.4%

 

References:

 

[1] -  Survey conducted 8th December with a sample size of 622.

[2] -  Survey conducted 7th November 2011 with a sample size of 620.

[3] -  Survey conducted 5th October 2011 with a sample size of 539.

[4] -  Survey conducted 6th September 2011 with a sample size of 524.

 

This survey was conducted using an automated telephone based survey system among 597 voters. Telephone numbers and the person within the household were selected at random. The results have been weighted by gender to reflect the population according to ABS figures. Please note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. Copyright ReachTEL Pty Ltd. 

 


You can check out some of the polls we have previously conducted. If you are interested in running a political poll or general market research simply pick up the phone and talk to one of our analyists.